Chapter 1: The Framework of Climate Models

Climate models, whether they encompass the entire planet or just specific regions, are structured using a spatial grid system. This grid is organized both horizontally and vertically, integrating various ocean depths and atmospheric layers. At the initial point of the model, known as "time zero" (t0 or tinit), baseline conditions, including the world's initial temperature readings, are established. These are referred to as "primary conditions," indicating the state of all system variables at the model's start.

The ultimate output of climate models is a comprehensive set of temperature predictions presented in a gridded format across the globe. Each time step generates a complete temperature map, beginning at t0/tinit and progressing to the end point (tn or tfinal). After each time step, the updated temperature data is reintroduced into the equations, alongside the defined boundary conditions, to initiate the subsequent run. This cycle continues until the designated conclusion date, such as January 1, 2100, marking the completion of one model run.

Numerous models exist globally, focusing on varying elements such as atmospheric dynamics, oceanic behavior, and even societal and economic factors. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) plays a crucial role in assessing these models and synthesizing their findings into a unified set of predictions for its periodic Climate Assessment. The current assessment, known as #6 (AR6), is now accessible online in its final draft.

Tomorrow's focus will be on hindcasting.

Be courageous, remain steadfast, and take care.

Sources:

Eustace Project — high-resolution modeling

Climate.gov — climate modeling primer

IPCC Sixth Assessment site

IPCC AR6 climate model comparisons

IPCC AR6 Annex 2: climate models

Chapter 2: The Wild Wild West of Climate Modeling

The video titled "The Wild Wild West of Climate Modeling" delves into the intricate and often unpredictable nature of climate modeling. It highlights how these models operate within a complex web of variables and uncertainties, showcasing the challenges faced by scientists in their quest to predict climate patterns.

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