The Dark Shadow of Extinction

Current research indicates that the average lifespan of a species ranges from about 1 million years for mammals to 11 million years for marine invertebrates. This realization can be quite unsettling, especially when considering that we are discussing species lifespans, not individual organisms.

Researchers derive these estimates through empirical data and mathematical models. But could there be something we are overlooking? Is there hope for humanity to escape the grasp of extinction indefinitely (to infinity and beyond, as we say)?

Unfortunately, the statistics do not favor us. Paleontologists are constantly unearthing fossils of extinct species, while biologists discover new living organisms daily. A review of all known species reveals that a staggering 99% of them have become extinct, and the situation may be even worse than we realize.

Our understanding of extinct species is limited to those that have left behind fossils or other evidence of their existence. This phenomenon is known as survivorship bias. Therefore, the statistic that 99% of species we know are extinct may be a conservative estimate.

Given this reality, can we reasonably expect humanity to be the exception? I doubt it. A rational person would likely share this skepticism.

Nature’s Answer to Survival — Evolution

In many fictional narratives, protagonists face daunting challenges as they strive toward noble goals. Just when it seems they might achieve relief, a more formidable adversary appears.

This leads to an intense climax where the hero appears defeated, only for an unexpected source of power to intervene, enabling them to triumph against the villain. This storytelling device is known as “Deus ex machina.”

You may wonder why I introduce this concept. The truth is, humanity’s struggle can be likened to a story. If we consider humanity as the protagonist and extinction as the antagonist, we are searching for our own version of “Deus ex machina” to rescue us from extinction in the distant future.

A significant candidate for this role is evolution—nature's inherent ability for a species to adapt and endure over extended periods.

To Infinity and Beyond — Our Ultimate Destination

Humans are innovative beings. While biological evolution occurs gradually over generations, we have our own means of hastening this process, which I term “technological evolution.”

We are preparing for our existence to extend beyond our biological forms, evolving into digital entities. Additionally, there are alternative life-preservation methods, such as cryogenic preservation.

However, if all our primary strategies fail, we have a backup plan: ensuring the survival of our intelligence. Even if our biological forms do not survive, advanced AI systems may emerge from our legacy, adapting to thrive in harsh conditions. These systems could represent evolved forms of our species.

But our aspiration does not just involve survival over a finite period; it seeks infinity and beyond. Achieving that ambition is more complex than it appears.

The Inevitable Conclusion

I recently grabbed a carton of milk from the supermarket—a rare treat for me. After ten days in the fridge, I finally decided to open it. To my dismay, the carton was swollen. Checking the expiry date, I found it was still six days away, yet clearly, the milk had spoiled. I missed out on my malt drink.

Why share this anecdote? Everything we know has an expiry date. While many items may outlast their expiration dates, ultimately, nothing is eternal.

This may sound cliché, but consider this: stars eventually exhaust their energy and fade away, leading to the eventual demise of planets. Even black holes, often thought of as eternal, will one day cease to exist. Our known universe, according to current understanding, may also have an end point.

Hypothetically, a thinking machine that improves over time would eventually overheat and cease to function. Thus, it seems that "infinity and beyond" may not be our true final destination.

Final Thoughts

Mathematicians are often fascinated by the concept of infinity. While this idea may seem distant for many, humans naturally gravitate toward narratives. To connect these threads, let's revisit a familiar ending:

“And they lived happily ever after…”

This phrase suggests an eternal conclusion—an infinite timeframe. Greene and other scholars argue that our fascination with eternity stems from our awareness of our limitations, driving us to escape them.

Perhaps it is ingrained in our nature to challenge the boundaries of our expiration. While this thought can be disheartening, let us end on a more uplifting note. In my personal experiences, I have encountered moments of bliss that felt timeless. We can find solace in these instances and cherish the possibility of living multiple eternities throughout our lives.

If we possess the capacity for imagination, we also have the potential to envision and experience fleeting eternities. Buzz may have been onto something when he declared, “To infinity and beyond…”

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References: Fred Pearce, Viviane Richter, and Brian Greene.

Acknowledgment: Special thanks to Nir Zicherman for recommending Brian Greene’s work.