Chapter 1: Crypto Market Overview

Recent developments indicate a significant trend in the cryptocurrency landscape, with Terra (LUNA) breaking new ground and the Ronin Chain (RON) facing its most severe hack in history. This analysis covers the following:

• The evolving crypto market dynamics
• Terra's price movements
• Developments in NFTs and the metaverse

Is the current crypto surge just the beginning, or is it time for profit-taking? Recent data, including a study from Delphi Digital, suggests that Bitcoin's recent rally might be the start of a larger trend. Historically, after the 14-day relative strength index (RSI) surpasses 70, Bitcoin has shown positive returns 70% of the time, averaging about 55%. If this pattern holds, Bitcoin could approach its all-time highs by late June.

Moreover, futures markets reveal signs of selling pressure, which often precedes market rallies.

According to Delphi Digital, the second quarter (April-July) has historically yielded the highest returns in the stock market over the past three decades. However, concerns about dwindling global liquidity remain. The dollar index (DXY) at 102 is a critical resistance level; a breach could negatively affect global risk appetite, including in crypto.

Market Update

Bitcoin (BTC) is currently testing the $48,000 resistance level after a recent surge. The RSI indicates a slight decline on the 4-hour charts, suggesting a temporary pullback, but selling Bitcoin under these conditions could be a risky proposition. Support levels remain strong in the $45,000 to $46,000 range.

Currently, Terra (LUNA) has surged by 11% today, driven by robust trading volumes, indicating it may enter a new phase of price exploration. At the time of writing, LUNA was priced at $107.89.

Noteworthy Developments

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Global Events and their Impact on Crypto

Continuing peace discussions are underway. Russia has indicated a reduction in military operations around Kyiv during talks in Turkey, although the US cautions that the threat is not completely diminished. President Zelensky of Ukraine has stated that only tangible results from negotiations can be trusted. The current proposals suggest that Ukraine may not join alliances or host foreign military presence, though EU membership could remain a possibility.

Rumors have emerged regarding Apple's potential announcement of a Strike Apple Pay integration during the Miami Bitcoin Conference, as discussed by Crypto Banter.

On-Chain Developments

MacroStrategy, a subsidiary of MicroStrategy, has secured a $205 million Bitcoin-collateralized loan from Silvergate Bank to acquire more Bitcoin. Notably, MicroStrategy currently holds 125,051 Bitcoins, averaging $32,000 per coin.

In a shocking turn of events, the Ronin (RON) cross-chain bridge suffered a hack amounting to 173,000 ETH and 25.5 million USDC. The compromised funds were moved to FTX and Crypto.com, where efforts are underway to recover the assets. The breach exploited vulnerabilities in four of Ronin's nine validators, raising concerns about the chain's centralized structure.

Meanwhile, Binance is set to enhance its liquidity offerings with Binance Bridge 2.0, enabling the conversion of nearly all ERC-20 tokens into BEP-20 B-tokens, facilitating access to dApps on the Binance BNB chain.

Noteworthy Events

• Soccer star Messi signs a $20 million, three-year deal with Socios (SOCIO) to promote fan tokens.
• The Kusama (KSM) parachain, Moonriver (MOVR), has initiated a $150 million grant hackathon.
• Shiba Inu (SHIB) hints at a major announcement on March 30.

NFT and Metaverse Updates

The NFT space is evolving, with LooksRare (LOOKS) collaborating with Etherscan to introduce a chat feature for NFT holders. Additionally, OpenSea has announced its intention to start trading Solana-based NFTs in April.

Alpha from the CoinList

Ethereum (ETH) continues to see a decline in issuance, expected to drop by 90% with the forthcoming merge, resulting in a staking APY of 10-15%. The Polkadot (DOT) ecosystem is expanding to include Kusama (KSM), Astar (ASTAR), Moonbeam (GMLR), and Moonriver (MOVR), which have begun to recover from recent sell-offs as DApps are deployed across their networks, leading to a rapid increase in Total Value Locked (TVL).

Final Thoughts

Discussions in the macroeconomic sphere are gradually shifting toward protocol-level conversations within the crypto community. Indicators suggest that Bitcoin's upward trajectory may just be beginning. Historically, Q2 has favored bullish trends, and negative sentiment appears to be dissipating quickly. With signs of de-escalation in global conflicts, we might be on the brink of a renewed appetite for risk.

Thank you for reading the Morning Brew!

The first video titled "THE RUN OF THE GOLDEN BULL (Bitcoin)" explores the potential upward trajectory for Bitcoin and its implications for the broader crypto market.

The second video, "How to BEST Prepare For The 2025 Crypto Bull Run | CryptosRUs," provides insights on strategies to capitalize on upcoming market trends.

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